Ukraine Lost War - On February 24, Russia attacked Ukraine in the largest military offensive on the European continent since World War II. The stated goals of Russian President Vladimir Putin at that time were to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, disarmament and "denazification" of the neighboring country. It was the beginning of a military operation that would turn the world order upside down. A little more than a month later, the Kremlin believes that the goals set for the first stage are "successfully" being achieved. It is reported that a new stage will soon begin, which will be focused on the "liberation" of Donbas in the southeast of Ukraine. But the facts, including a number of failures that led to a significant withdrawal and reorganization of Russian troops, do not confirm this version of events. What is the balance of the war so far?
Russia was unable to capture the main cities of Ukraine - the capital Kyiv, Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, and even the heavily destroyed Mariupol is still being defended. Odesa remains free, and Ukrainian forces are being restored in several parts of the country. Russian troops are withdrawing from their positions on the northern front, in particular from positions around Kyiv. Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) believe that Russian forces have stopped trying to capture Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city and the target of an intense offensive since the invasion began. Russian forces continue to shell the city, but appear to have stopped trying to surround and control it.
Ukraine Lost War
* Human and military losses during war are usually estimated due to the difficulty of verifying data on the ground
Why Russia Has Suffered The Loss Of An 'extraordinary' Number Of Generals
Realizing the failure in several offensive lines and the exhaustion of forces forces the Kremlin to reorganize the disengagement of forces in Ukraine. There were huge material losses.
* Oryx, a dedicated website documenting Russia and Ukraine's military losses using visual evidence, offers calculations to help get an idea of the material costs of this conflict. Ukrainian losses are probably underestimated.
“The first phase was a Russian military defeat of colossal proportions, a truly spectacular thing. It will be studied in military academies because of the accumulation of mistakes,” says Francois Gaisbourg, special adviser to the French Foundation for Strategic Studies (FFRS), France's leading think tank on international security and defense. The main reason, Gaisburg says, is the Kremlin's flawed political analysis, which led officials to believe that the Ukrainians would not face such strong resistance, which also led to inadequate military planning.
"It was a disaster," agrees Ruth Dearmond, a researcher at King's College London's war studies department who specializes in security in the post-Soviet space. "We see great losses, communication and logistical failures, signs of corruption. They are forced to resort to the help of mercenaries and retreat from Kyiv. Without a doubt, Russia will lose the war. We cannot say with certainty that Ukraine will win, but we can clearly say that Russia will lose," he says.
Putin Losing Power, Russia Officials Thinks Ukraine War Is Lost
Below is an analysis of the combination of strategic and tactical factors that brought the warring parties to a state of war with an as yet uncertain outcome that would define an era. "An initial failure is not a predictor of what will happen later," cautions Heisburg. The conflict can be prolonged and something can tip the scales of war again.
Ukraine was invaded by a 150-190,000-strong strike group of the Russian army, organized in the so-called Battalion tactical groups (BTG), a key operational unit of the Russian army. These formations, equipped with about 50 units of armored vehicles, are designed for operations with high autonomy and high firepower. According to US estimates, Russia has deployed about 100 BTGs in Ukraine, which, according to the Pentagon, is 75% of the total number of units at the disposal of the Kremlin.
Each BTG is modular and includes several companies with armored vehicles and artillery batteries. Here is the most common structure:
But these powerful units were hampered by numerous problems, including their own mistakes and successes of the Ukrainian defense.
Russian Attempts To Restock Its Military May Be Doomed To Failure
Tactically, Russia's decision to advance by road directly to major urban targets made troop movements highly predictable and vulnerable to ambushes. Failures in equipment maintenance and logistics, as well as often inadequate flank protection by infantry, exacerbated their weakness.
This convoy of Russian armored vehicles had logistical problems as it made its slow progress towards Kyiv in the last week of February. Maxar
Operationally, the Pentagon also saw breakdowns in the communications chain, increasingly relying on unsafe lines. "The use of unencrypted lines allowed Ukrainian forces to locate and kill several Russian generals," Deermond says.
Overall, command and control showed signs of inefficiency in conducting an operation on a scale not seen by Russian forces in decades. And a hierarchical structure that rarely delegates middle management reduces flexibility.
When Will The War In Ukraine End? And How?
The range of Russian targets led to the dispersion of troops on land. However, this did not prevent them from gaining a clear advantage on the fronts.
Ukrainian troops took advantage of the situation, repeatedly attacking Russian columns with anti-tank weapons, such as spears, or from the sky with the help of drones.
Ukraine received training and military equipment, including anti-tank missiles and the Bayraktar TB2 combat drone. The easy-to-use Javelin anti-missile complex, which has great stopping power, helped Ukraine stop Russian armored convoys.
The Javelin missile can engage targets up to 2.5 miles (4 km) away. The projectile takes a vertical trajectory, which increases its effectiveness against armored vehicles.
How The Map Of Ukraine Has Changed In Three Months Of War
Gaisburg emphasizes three key factors in Ukraine's achievements: "Brave fighting spirit, weapons provided by the West, and training from Western countries, which gave Ukraine better organizational capabilities than the Russians, who are very uncoordinated."
The desire to protect one's country and one's fellow citizens is a motivation that is difficult to overcome. And President Zelenskyi was an inspiring leader.
Weapons supplied from the West, even if they do not have sophisticated systems, are proving to be very useful in the hostilities taking place in Ukraine.
In addition, Ukrainian forces undoubtedly benefit from significant intelligence and advisory support from the West. Espionage, satellite surveillance technology and cyber defense support from Western government agencies and private companies, including Microsoft and Starlink, have emerged as important factors.
Only Russia's Decisive Loss On The Battlefield Will End The Ukraine War
The lack of a large-scale cyberattack surprised many. "That doesn't mean we haven't seen cyberspace in this conflict. We have a lot. We have seen continued Russian intent to disrupt Ukrainian government and military systems," said Sir Jeremy Fleming, director of Britain's General Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), in recent statements. But there were no significant effects.
Ukraine has also benefited from Russia's inability to achieve air superiority, which baffles many experts. In fact, this is due to the fact that Russia did not strike Ukrainian air defenses, mostly due to inaccurate information about their location or the time of the attacks. Russia has carried out many attacks and caused a lot of damage, but it has not succeeded in decisively reducing Ukraine's military potential.
From the very beginning, Russia tried to make the most of its huge missile potential. According to the Pentagon, by March 31, the country had launched more than 1,400 cruise and ballistic missiles.
Russia has a large arsenal of missiles thanks to decades of defense industry development, first in the Soviet Union and later under a new initiative by President Vladimir Putin. The star of the arsenal is most likely the Iskander-M, which can launch short-range ballistic missiles. The army has also used Kalibr cruise missiles, and Moscow claims to have deployed the Kinzhal hypersonic missile.
Russia's Death Toll Rises In Ukraine
Defense against missile attacks is extremely difficult, and even the world's most advanced militaries have limited interception capabilities. Ukraine has the S-300 anti-missile system, developed back in Soviet times and developed later.
Initially, Russia chose targets of a clearly military nature in order to weaken the operational capabilities of the enemy. But gradually it also spread to civilian targets, from TV towers to shopping malls and even hospitals.
The Pentagon believes Russia still has a large stockpile of ballistic and cruise missiles, but it may lack precision missiles, forcing it to use increasingly less accurate weapons as the conflict drags on.
Russia's extraordinary missile capability has caused considerable damage, but has failed to undermine Ukraine's resistance, both in terms of military potential and the determination of the people.
Ukrainian Armed Forces: Russia Has Lost About 9,000 Troops
Russia's inability to neutralize Ukraine's anti-aircraft defense determines the operational efficiency of Russian aviation, which cannot move freely in Ukrainian airspace. This means limiting Russian airstrikes to protect advancing ground forces or attack targets. The Pentagon estimated that Russia uses 60% of its air force in Ukraine.
In Washington, it is believed that Russian planes flew about 250 to
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