Ukraine More Tanks - In many circles, it has become customary to claim that Ukraine has no chance of defeating Russian forces in the current war. If this assessment is correct, the obvious outcome of the conflict would be a negotiated solution that would give Russia the territories it currently occupies in exchange for "peace." With the loss of most of its eastern agricultural and industrial areas, along with most of its Black Sea coast, Ukraine would then become a client state, economically unviable and dependent on external support for its survival.
As interest in sanctioning Russia declines, interest in international aid and support for Ukraine will likely fade over time. In that case, the prospect of what remains of Ukraine eventually joining the EU and NATO would also disappear. Instead, Ukraine will inevitably fall into Russia's orbit. "Peace" won't follow either. As Putin has said many times, Russia's foreign policy goes far beyond Ukraine.
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Indeed, as it stands, Ukraine may not be able to "win" if victory is defined as the recovery of all internationally recognized Ukrainian territory and a decisive defeat of Russia in that area.
Ukraine Can Win
Western financial and security assistance has helped Ukraine inflict heavy losses on Russian forces in the air, sea and land. However, Western policy decisions to deliberately exclude airpower, self-propelled artillery, long-range precision fires, and main battle tanks from Ukraine have had the desired effect. Without them, Ukraine cannot go on the offensive and drive out the invaders.
The West has almost certainly decided collectively not to "number" Putin. If Latvia supplies Ukraine with more military equipment than France, Italy and Germany, then the true intentions of major European countries will be strongly exposed.
However, the logic of this approach breaks down when confronted with the substantial possibility of further Russian aggression against NATO territory. When that happens, there's a lot of worry about "missed opportunities" and "miscalculations." It is far better to face threats now while Russia suffers from high casualties, depleted stocks of high-tech munitions, low morale, high loss of senior commanders, and poverty for a generation.
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A careful assessment suggests that, with strong capabilities, Ukraine can prevail. As for jobs, President Zelensky can finally put up to a million trained soldiers on the field, despite the heavy losses so far. That's a lot more than Russia can possibly produce.
Almost all Russian troops are committed to Ukraine, including troops from the Far East and the Kaliningrad enclave. Although often referred to as "850,000 strong," the Russian ground army is actually far fewer than 300,000, with the remainder belonging to the internal security forces (Russian National Guard), border police, and other organizations unfit to fight in Ukraine. This force suffers suffered painful losses that could not be replaced by trained recruits and recalled reservists. Nor can Putin resort to general mobilization without exposing his regime to enormous risks. As time goes on, Ukraine's advantage will only grow.
In terms of equipment, Ukraine has an adequate supply of small arms, body armor and drones, as well as anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles. It had a large tank and artillery force, good intelligence, and a well-functioning rail system that allowed troops and supplies to move along interior lines. However, most Ukrainian tanks lack thermal sights, GPS navigation, modern ammunition, and the latest armor, while most Ukrainian artillery is towed (and thus vulnerable to Russian counterattacks) and has no protection against small arms and shrapnel. Ukrainian tanks and artillery are also inferior in numbers and range to more modern and lethal Russian systems.
At the same time, the United States kept a large number of M1A1 main battle tanks and M109A6 155mm self-propelled howitzers in warehouses after the upgrade. These exceed current requirements and can be returned to Ukraine to operational status relatively quickly. While not the latest technology, they are more than a match for Russian adversary systems. The grit, grit and resilience of Ukrainians have resulted in a strong resistance so far. But it takes hard skills like this to win.
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Ukraine has the largest capability deficit in air power and long-range fires, where Russia enjoys a clear advantage. Without a viable air force and a sufficient number of missile artillery platforms, Ukraine cannot count on Russian long-range systems capable of leveling entire cities in the east and enabling incremental advances. The few HIMARS available so far have helped, but more are needed, along with subsequent versions of the Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS).
The Ukrainian Air Force fought bravely, but it dispatched no more than 10-20 sorties a day, accounting for only 10% of Russia's total. NATO allies and coalition partners have provided strong air support in Kosovo, Iraq and Afghanistan and have been able to do so again without sending ground troops. At the very least, allowing Poland and other ex-Warsaw Pact countries to transfer Soviet-era aircraft such as MIG-29s and SU-25s to Ukraine would have real ramifications.
It will take time to absorb new equipment and train soldiers to use it, making any counteroffensive in 2022 problematic. However, the Ukrainian military has shown great adaptability and versatility in carrying the various different types of equipment available. We can expect a resolute defense through the end of the year. After retraining and reequipment, the Ukrainian military will be ready to transition to an offensive status in 2023. Its high morale, innovative spirit, effective leadership and will to win far surpass the Russian military.
Empowering Ukraine offensively requires Western leaders to answer existential questions. Do we really want Putin to fail? Or will we be intimidated by a barrage of dire threats, especially with regard to the use of nuclear weapons? Condensed to its gist, Russia's "escalation-to-de-escalation" doctrine reads: "If you will not allow us to invade and occupy our neighbors, we will nuke you." By that logic, we cannot The place faces Russian aggression.
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For decades, the United States and its British and French allies have successfully relied on nuclear deterrence. Deterrence remains intact and effective. Here we must never give in to our fears. American and European leaders often talk about "preparing for a long war." With soaring energy prices and a looming global food crisis, the world doesn't need it. What it needs is a swift end to the conflict.
Unfortunately, the West has a poor record of avoiding genocide and the massive loss of innocent life since 1945. For reasons that seem both political and sensible, we stood by as hundreds of thousands died in the killing fields of Cambodia, Somalia, Rwanda, Sudan, the Balkans, and Syria. Now, it's happening again as Russia seeks to uproot Ukraine's democracy, independence and culture. If the Atlantic community chooses to stand by again, the consequences will be disastrous. This conflict will not take place in our backyard. It will be on our doorstep.
In short, if the West takes active steps to ensure that Ukraine cannot win, it cannot win. But Ukraine can win if it commits to delivering the full range of capabilities required for modern, high-intensity warfare. This victory will stop Russian aggression in European security for a generation, maybe forever. This will be a legacy for our leaders and our people.
Little RD Whore is a non-resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council. He has served as Director of the NATO Defense Academy, Special Assistant to the President of the United States, and Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the National Security Council.
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The views expressed in UkraineAlert are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Atlantic Council, its staff or supporters.
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